Tag: liquidity

04 Jan 2008

Finally, Some Sanity On Prediction Markets

Maybe they are good at picking out the available information. If there is enough trading. Or not. Also, maybe they are not so good at optimizing the available information:

Are Political Markets Really Superior to Polls as Election Predictors?
Here’s an article by Bob Erikson and Chris Wlezien on why the political markets have been inferior to [...]