EconTech

Of course, Senator Clinton did quite well in last night’s primaries. Many people, I suspect, would expect that to have seriously changed the trading patterns on Intrade. Certainly, there was a shift. But 72/26 is not so different from the 80/20 that I saw just a couple of days ago. The markets seem to think [...]

He, too, seems to feel the same way I do. Possibly good at aggregating available information (but there is still evidence of longshot bias and other bubbles, plus increased liquidity may not be increasing efficiency). And of course, there is missing information. His language, and some of his objections, are not ones I’ve considered before [...]

Looks like he feels about how I do on the evidence:

Nobody knows anything

Dewey defeats Truman
But to be more specific, the prediction markets — which you see, again and again, touted as having some mystical power to aggregate information, know no more than the conventional wisdom. Here’s the Intrade price for “Clinton wins the Democratic nomination” [...]

My question: There is an extensive literature (pdf) of using various policy positions, economic factors, and so on and so forth to predict presidential elections. My impression is that the models using these factors do better in predicting elections 6 months from election day than do the polls the weekend before the election. Plus, models [...]

More information market hopeful madness. These things are certainly interesting; I just have not seen very convincing evidence that they are particularly good predictors. And 9/10 I want something predicted, I want to understand WHY and HOW it is so. I have seen NOTHING that gives us that kind of information from these markets
Presidential Decision [...]