Tag: explanation versus prediction

06 Jan 2008

Robin Hanson Continues To Hope For Magic Data

More information market hopeful madness. These things are certainly interesting; I just have not seen very convincing evidence that they are particularly good predictors. And 9/10 I want something predicted, I want to understand WHY and HOW it is so. I have seen NOTHING that gives us that kind of information from these markets
Presidential Decision [...]