Tag: data based beliefs

05 May 2008

Von Neumann on Theory

There will soon be another post on the role of theory in advancing knowledge. For the time being, Robin Hanson channels my favorite intellectual of the 20th century, von Neumann:
Keeping Math Real

John von Neumann:
As a mathematical discipline travels far from its empirical source, or still more, if it is a second and third generation only [...]

04 May 2008

Why EMR Excite Me: The Trouble with Normal

Apparently, it doesn’t get funding:
Why Medicine Should Care Less About ‘Sick,’ More About ‘Normal’
If you had died 50 years ago, your body would have stood a pretty good chance of serving science. In the 1960s, autopsy rates at US hospitals exceeded 50 percent. Pathologists weren’t necessarily looking for what killed people — they were taking [...]

31 Mar 2008

First PK, Now Bartels (via Rodrik): Policy Is Part of Inequality

Paul Krugman (among others) has been saying that the growth in inequality in America is in large part due to policy differences in various administrations. Obviously and with good reason, Krugman believes that Republican administrations create policies and institutions that favor the rich over the poor while Democrats do a better job of equalizing the [...]

10 Mar 2008

Inflation can be Good

I’ve heard from a lot of people railing against inflation always and everywhere. Mostly, these are people who seem to know very little about economics but continue to have very strong opinions about it (Ron Paul). Krugman explains one positive effect of inflation. But in all things, moderation.
In praise of expected inflation

Real rates go negative
There [...]

15 Jan 2008

In Praise of Bean Counters: PPP GDP Data and the World Bank

Courtesy of Rodrik’s blog. I do have an issue with the description of what Einstein’s response to data would be but that is mostly irrelevant. Also, while PPP is largely the measure used for adjusting market exchange rates, I wouldn’t call it ‘the key,’ as it has serious shortcomings.
Fact Check, Reality Check? New GDP Data

by [...]

04 Jan 2008

My Love/Hate Relationship with Probability

and, specifically, counting. UGH. It is incredibly counterintuitive, and what seems obvious just simply isn’t the case. This is yet another case of “run the numbers, stupid.” And if you don’t know how, stop forming your opinion, right now. You have no hope of getting a good estimate.
 Probability Intuition:
Last quarter I taught discrete math. One [...]

17 Dec 2007

A Research Agenda for Terrorism

VoxEU is great. Professional summaries of academic articles and books. As usual, I want more hyperlinks (they are the footnotes of the web!), but since it points to an academic article for further research, I’ll say good enough. Note: their table is not reproduced here (I don’t think the layout will transfer over very well), [...]