06 Feb 2008
Obama passes Clinton on Intrade
I just on InTrade saw that Obama is at 52.3 for nominee, Clinton is at 47.8. I believe this is the first time he has been ahead of her, though I haven’t kept extremely close track.
For president, Obama is at 34.6, McCain 34.9, and Clinton at 28. McCain being the GOP nominee is at 94%. Considering Clinton had an almost 20 point lead on Obama when I went to bed last night, that is a rather huge change. Also, big swings in prediction markets don’t give me great confidence in their predictive capacity.
